Made in America–Not: Part 2
John Gyorki
July 29th, 2008.
Because I received such an overwhelming number of e-mail responses on this subject in the May issue, I decided to write a second article. I invite you to read the first set of replies on the Design World website Insights blog.
Obviously, most people agreed with my opinion regarding the devastating loss of American jobs and the negative effect that “off-shoring” has on our economy. This included smart, prominent manufacturers who make US products, profitably! Only those who choose to off-shore our knowledgebase object to my opinion. In the hope of finding a government publication that supported my opinion, I consulted the Internet and read our president’s report on the status of the US economy for 2007 (called a 2008 report). I was surprised (and a little puzzled) to read that the president painted a very rosy picture of our economic status! He and his advisors did not own up to the fact that we were and still are on a steep path to recession, but rather, that our economy was “unsettled.” What a weasel word! The report went on to say that although unemployment was approaching 5%, it was not likely to reach it. At this writing, the number is 5.5% and climbing. It also claimed that the US was the largest exporter of goods and services of any country, but he did not immediately describe what these goods and services comprised. After a little more searching, I got the impression that he was equating those exported services with the jobs that we offshored — primarily software development to India and China. How can that be an export? Exports are supposed to bring in dollars, not pay them out in salaries to foreign companies.
When the president finally listed some serious items of economic concern, he mentioned exports of grain and machinery. (No mention of foodstuff going to make useless ethanol.) His only negative was the …”housing problem where the market gains were ‘interrupted.’ ” Interrupted? How about devastated? This is another perfect example of “double-speak.” As you can read for yourself, our president and his lackeys are expert in the fields of double speak and lying. He completely avoided the subject of US manufacturing and the negative effects of off-shoring jobs to the tune of billions of dollars, not just the $12,000 per year to a few Indian software programmers that I hear about.
Then I looked at the EU economic report for 2007. This author was more honest and forthwith. (Should I be surprised?) He also confirmed that the US had more exports than the EU: The US was still the number one economy, followed by Japan. The words that he used were not misleading double-speak like our president preferred. He did not paint a faultless picture. He said the EU had work to do to improve its condition or situation.
Finally, one reader recommended that I study the book, “A Whole New Mind,” by Daniel Pink. Ironically, I had just purchased a copy one week prior to his e-mail, but had not gotten into it yet. So I read it immediately. I recommend that all of you read it too. It is an excellent interpretation and description (and opinion) of the changes currently taking place in our country. For example, the US will be off-shoring 136 billion dollars over the next ten years in salaries. (This is probably conservative.) He argues that this is good, because it represents repetitive and simple jobs that American workers are not interested in doing, such as software programming and assembly jobs. Try to convince my neighbor that is good; whose entire software department was offshored to India a few weeks ago. Now it is good that we are helping the Indian family, but who is going to help my neighbor?
There are 27 Responses to “Made in America–Not: Part 2”
#2 LANCEB - 30 July, 9:26 AM
John,
I cannot disagree with #1 Subscriber more. I thought your article was very insightful. As an engineer and a designer I am very interested in all facets that affect manufacturing. And for a certainty off-shoring impact manufacturing. I am an avid reader and I rarely find printed information that captures my attention. This article however, did just that. It was direct and a very easy read.
I have long held that our economy is headed in the wrong direction. It has fallen victim to the globalist of our nation. Some how these individuals have come to the conclusion that by off-shoring our manufacturing we will evolve into an economy that is driven by high-tech entities. On the surface I am totally in opposition to this, thus I am continuing to try and understand their logic. Thus far, I don’t.
Keep up the good writing.
#3 MFG4US - 30 July, 9:33 AM
I am in agreement that we should be very concerned with the amount of off-shoring being done. Our manufacturing base is the engine of our economy and we can’t ignore what has been occurring as our US executives move manufacturing and design jobs overseas because it looks good on paper to the bottom line in the short term. But this is exactly what it is, short term thinking. As we outsource these functions outside the US, the US loses these capabilities which equates to an errosion of the economy. Knowledge and acknowledgement of what is occurring to our manufacturing/technical job base and it’s potential long-term effects should get each of us motivated to ensure that we continue to innovate and advance our techonology and capabilities to keep these jobs here in the US. As the world’s #1 economy, it’s easy for us to fall into complacency. We need a sense of urgency to ensure we maintain and further our economic success.
#4 XY - 30 July, 9:35 AM
Agreed. I feel like I just watched a typical report from CNN or BBC. All you said is the result of globalization. US gained benifits from that, and for sure there is the con-side of it. If all the problems are fixed, then the society is in the ideal state. This can also be referred as the socialism or communism, which are unrealistic. So by supporting the democratic system, suck it up and focus on the design.
#5 dougnickerson - 30 July, 9:54 AM
Isn’t an editor expected to take the larger view? Of course. Politics is part of that larger view.
#6 CAD guy - 30 July, 9:55 AM
If you dont like President Bush, why don’t you just come out and say so.
P.S. I can hire Indian CAD operators for $20/hour, here it costs me $42.21/hour. Why do you think companies off-shore?
#7 BobSound - 30 July, 9:59 AM
John,
I disagree with comment #1 from A Regular Subscriber. I think it was a great article. I like to know what other engineers and my colleagues in the industry think about the present world situation. My take on this is as follows: Remember when we began seeing $39 VCR’s and $150 TV’s and all of us rejoiced at being able to buy stuff so cheap? Well now we are paying for it with $4/gallon gas. Yes, what goes around comes around. We don’t live in a vacuum. Had China been allowed to develop on it’s own, demand for world resources would not have spiked so quickly. The piper wants to be payed and the time has come to do it. Every time it costs me $60 to fill my tank I am reminded that I would have been better off paying $200 for that VCR and keep our American friends and neighbors at work.
#8 Gene - 30 July, 10:00 AM
John,
Your comments are right on the mark and frankly I can’t believe the naivety of “A regular subscriber” and his response to you that you should give reasons to keep manufacturing in the U.S. Give reasons to keep jobs in this country? Gee, I don’t know, maybe to give people a good life, to stimulate growth, to contribute to the tax rolls and help support the government? No I can’t see any reason to keep jobs here.
But what also infuriates me is the justification companies give for shipping jobs overseas, and you touched on that. You quoted Daniel Pink who said that Americans aren’t interested in doing repetitive jobs. Oh yes I’ve heard that excuse for years. First it was “no one wants to do assembly work, it’s dull and dirty work.” Then it was “no one wants to do machining, it’s hard and dirty.” Now it’s “no one wants to do programming because it’s repetitive?” The CEO of Cummins Engine made the comment a couple of years ago that he had to go to India for CAD designers because “Americans don’t want to do CAD anymore.” That is such unmitigated BS it’s beyond belief.
The middle class of this country was built on high-paying blue collar jobs, jobs created by manufacturing. But not only have we shipped those overseas we are now shipping our design and engineering overseas. I suppose no one in this country wants to be an engineer because it’s too simple and repetitive as well? So what are young people in this country supposed to aspire to? In another ten years the only career choices left will be either professional athlete, pop singing star, actor, bankruptcy lawyer, or Wal-Mart clerk.
I’m sure someone who is detached from reality as Dan Pink doesn’t have a problem with that. He boasts that while he has a JD from Yale Law School he never has had to practice law. In fact he takes pride that his last “real job” was working as a speech writer for Al Gore back in the mid nineties. Well Mr. Pink, before you expound your ideas for a brave new world, go out and really work for a living, when the threat of layoffs exist every day and you are thrilled to get a four percent pay raise. Then maybe you won’t be so eager to destroy people’s lives by shipping their income overseas.
Gene,
A proud AMERICAN engineer
#9 BertO - 30 July, 10:18 AM
John,
Design World is coming close to losing me as a subscriber. If I want to read a political opinion piece I’ll visit one of the gazillion and three political or social news sites or blogs. I subscribe to Design World to learn more about, oddly enough, the latest in engineering and design news and information. Please stay on topic.
Bert
#10 jeffrey Kapec - 30 July, 10:24 AM
John:
I would agree with you that this country has gone way off track. The policy that the current administration is following has a myopic pathology that precludes it from addressing the future rather, it focused squarely to benefit the special interest of groups which supported it during the general elections. Not to get off track on politics let me focus on current experiences in the field of product design. We are a consulting design firm that specializes in new product development. Along that course we also assist our clients with manufacturing process. We have been in this business for 28 years. We do quite a lot of work with medical device design as well as technical products and consumer products…. so we see the gamut. I have engaged with manufacturing entities here in the US as well as Europe and China. What I have noticed over the last 10 years is a contraction of the manufacturing services in the US that are available for many common processes necessary to produce a product. For example, I have just spent 2 months trying to connect with an appropriate metal casting house to produce steel bases for a medical cart that we have designed. Many firms that I had worked with 10 years ago are no longer in business. The number of companies available to quote this project were limited to 10 and of that only 2 had the ability to produce a 27 lb steel investment casting. Does this sound like a problem? Is it likely to grow in the future? I was advised to go to China to have the part casted. I did not want to do that because the production volume was not large enough to justify. Aside from the casting problem I have run into the same issues locating machinist, model makers, pattern makers and injection molders. And, I am not limiting my search to local sources, I am looking all over the US. If we do not foster high quality manufacturing methods in this country and promote the talent and education to make it a reality in this country we will not have the flexibility to adjust to changing global economic conditions in years to come. Our present administration does not understand the seriousness of this problem. There are individuals that do understand the depth of this problem and the impact on our future but their voices are not allowed to speak. Not to different from the way the lead NASA scientist was not permitted to speak about the reality of global warming.
#11 chrisppeter - 30 July, 10:34 AM
Money and power and the perception of money and power are the drivers for all interactions between peoples and states. Where labor cost is a high percentage of the cost of anything for sale (knowledge included) a business concerned with reducing costs will seek the lowest cost source. No one in a position of power in business or in politics has the leadership ability to see the long term results of this policy and lead the U.S away from this path. My advice is get in early on the next big bubble (internet stocks, real estate, oil) and make enough to cushion yourself for the economic depression to come. “Hooray for me - f*#@ you” is the new American way (or maybe not).
#12 dpbrown - 30 July, 10:56 AM
John,
I applaud your effort in bringing this issue into the public domain. I have found that very few journalists do not have the experience or insight to address this issue, and until their jobs become outsourced to lower cost labor markets I do not believe they will see the immediacy of this problem. This is one of the biggest issues our society has to deal with today. The foundation of our economic system has been American Dream opportunities available in our economy and the job opportunities and economic growth this system has historically provided. I believe in free “fair” trade, and the global social benefit of Globalization, but with the condition of reciprocity of equal access to markets and the commitment to human, civil and property rights, especially IP rights which have proven historically to drive innovation.
Under this scenario, I believe commodity products will migrate to the low cost labor, but those products with other value added marketability protected by IP, often referred to as “innovative products or services” can and should be manufactured domestically to continue to provide and sustain domestic manufacturing, at least until these products have run their “value added” product life cycle and are hopefully replaced by the next generation of innovative value added products. My experience is that we have misguidedly abandoned the US manufacturing option almost completely, even for new innovative opportunities, to minimize investment risk, and the extra work and costs of managing the human element of manufacturing in our economy. There is blame to be shared by all aspects of our society for this short sighted opportunistic economic strategy.
We have a small company, we design and commercialize innovative new hand tool products, and although we are not manufacturers we are committed to American Manufacturing. My perspective is that the American public has been sold a “bill of goods” over the last 25 years. Our past leaders both business and political have embraced a mythology that our manufacturing job loss will be offset and replaced by gains in higher tech jobs, and increased global sales of our manufactured goods in these new markets. We have proceeded to send as much manufacturing offshore as possible in order to capture the short term profits at the social and economic costs of destroying those entry level economic positions that had supported the American Dream in the past. I am not sure everyone understands this, unless you grew up in a post World War II blue collar household, the overall value of a good job is our social-economic foundation. All willing workers are not trained or capable of high tech work, but they are capable of skilled labor, and we need some of these jobs, with fair pay and benefits available in our economy. Secondly we need the basic manufacturing industries in our economy to support the value added manufacturing opportunities that create upstream higher paying manufacturing jobs.
As an individual who has chosen the path less traveled over the last 4 years I can tell you it is very difficult. First our US consumers are addicted to the imported low cost goods, especially those consumers at the lower end of the economic scale who have suffered the most by our offshoring of manufacturing. Second the retailers, who are becoming increasingly larger, fewer and understandably monopolistic in their behavior fan the fire of offshoring in their quest for the lowest cost goods to drive consumers to their stores. Within this scenario manufacturers have chosen to immediately offshore even value added products that could be manufactured in the States, in order to meet the demands of their customers (the retailers) in a survival mentality because they have to run a profitable business or perish. Our labor unions have given management strong motivation to send their labor offshore, the time honored practice of “pattern bargaining” and labor strikes in the global labor market of offshoring options have left many companies with the strategy of sending the manufacturing offshore to avoid the labor issues of a society with human, and civil rights. Finally our political leaders, many of whom never managed a business or worked a low wage job have legislated a system that has not only allowed this “perfect storm” to brew but have often based their decisions within a corruptible political system of reelection survival versus the principles of collective economic strength and social benefit for all. We are in a mess, and only educating the US consumer that their power lies in their individual purchasing decisions.
I am distressed daily by what I see, yesterday I heard on the radio that the international trade talks have broken down, principally because China is insisting on trade rules that protect their farmers from low cost imports! I am sure there is a lot more to this story, but I find it is an ironic situation. From my perspective, I have come to the conclusion that there is only one simple way out of this mess, and it is based on raising the public awareness of their purchasing power. That is the economic power of voting with their dollars, we need to educate consumers on how their individual daily purchasing decisions affect all of us. Simply if consumers choose to purchase more US manufactured goods, Retailers will quickly find a way to get them in the stores, and Entrepreneurs will develop and invest in US product strategies. Manufactures will quickly invest to capture the new opportunities, and US Workers will see a greater demand for their labor. The economic benefit will flow through the economy, lifting all of us in the process. I do not think we need to buy all of our products domestically, but there are many value added products that our consumerism can support that directly lead to more domestic manufacturing opportunities and jobs. Thus as I opened this long winded comment, I applaud your insight in addressing this issue in the media. We need much more attention to this issue if we are to survive economically.
#13 smcdonald8 - 30 July, 11:25 AM
I agree wholeheartedly with #1 rsubscriber comments. Leave out the politics and stick to design!! You have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to economics. When I want political opinions I will go to my newspaper and read the op-ed section. I also rarely offer feedback and have never responded to one of your columns before, but I was really put off by your column.
#14 Tom Zuraw - 30 July, 12:25 PM
I do not agree with John. What we are talking about is an editorial, not an article. I may or may not agree with editorials but the point is to make us think.
If we were to separate everything from articles and editorials that is not specifically design related, it would be a very boring magazine indeed. Cost? I’m sorry that is business. FMEA? I’m sorry that’s pessimistic. Interstate and international sourcing? I’m sorry that’s politics.
Truth is, it is all in the mix. And we should all have the intelligence to talk about it intelligently. When we exclude topics as ‘forbidden’ we often do make the most irresponsible decisions.
#15 Fred Z - 30 July, 2:00 PM
John, I think the most important comment of your article “Made in America –NOT Part 2.” was the last sentance… “Now it is good that we are helping the Indian family, but who is going to help my neighbor?”
The university would have you believe that their MBA programs will refine and improve the “bottom line”. But they are selling a product, and the Management of American businesses have taken the bait.
The USA had a thriving economy before this change invaded the country.
Now those jobs who were providing prosperity here, and allowing the worker to purchase a better life, have been “Outsourced” to the people who are basically slaves, and lives of the working class in the U.S.A have been desimated because of the greed imposed by these “well meaning”, short sighted MBA’s and Management who have feathered their individual nests at the worker’s expense.
The Stock market used to help the struggling businessman gather funds for R&D, and Manufacturing technology to assist with “American” progress. Now Corporations are managed by the greedy that no longer invest in improving the work here, only seeking to “save” money and “cut” expenses without investing in the future.
Keep up the good work
Fred Z
#16 Ken Regan - 30 July, 4:09 PM
John-
I’m so glad you are discussing this. There are NO news outlets anymore where one can hear or read honest news, reasonable opinions, and intelligent discussions with regard to our economy and especially the future of US tech. Fred Z., dpbrown, Gene, I’m with you. It is not partisan to point out the disastrous path the Bush administration has led us down (I voted for him, the first term only).
This (Bush) administration has been the enemy of tech (mainly due to Mr. Bush’s ignorance and stupidity)and ‘news’ outlets like Fox News won’t discuss it.
I hope the naysayers (especially managers) discover on Monday that they have been outsourced. After all, management is tedious and boring.
Ken Regan,
Principal EE
#17 MJL - 30 July, 5:19 PM
I find this type of article, even if it is an editorial, completely out of place and out of line for this type of publication. If I wanted to hear political ramblings (and this is nothing but heated political rambling) I certainly wouldn’t come to Design World to find it. There are enough websites around that are filled with tirades such as this. Please keep it relevant or lose another reader!
#18 donm - 31 July, 6:32 AM
I think the article was good. However, it’s gone way beyond the simple jobs of assembly and programming??? (I never thought that programming was that simple). As a software engineer, I’ve been wondering why I’m seeing products that are using too powerful microprocessors than necessary and why the programmers/software people are ignorant of algorithms that enable the same products to be designed at a fraction of the cost….could it be that it is a result of outsourcing. Could this also be a reason why a lot of Vista drivers crash (unlike XP), because for Vista many of them were developed via outsourcing.
Full engineering and design projects are now being outsourced including all hardware software and everything else. This has just started a new trend in India…..the Indian startup where American technological secrets are being stolen and new company startups directly competing with the original outsourcing company is happening…..it’s the backdraft to the act of outsourcing. It will become more expensive to outsource as these countries require better treatment and start insisting on polution laws, etc, etc….due to the rising middle class. Then it will be even harder for American companies to compete. With new companies set up in India, full companies (including those who outsourced) will be put out of business. As one commenter said…..what are we to aspire to.
I’ve been unemployed for about 8 months as a software engineer with over 25 years experience…..mostly due to outsourcing. I’ve never been in a situation like this, and my field is supposed to be the least affected. At 47, what do I do now? Become a barber?
It’s all pretty depressing. I’ve even been willing to lower my salary by 30%, but these companies prefer the control they maintain by outsourcing….
I do believe in Karma though, so perhaps the first companies to be put out of business will be those who have outsourced….
-A typical Engineer.
#19 progeek - 31 July, 8:10 PM
The jobs keep flowing out of the country and inflation of goods & housing keep rising as if we truly have a vibrant econcomy. In the ’70’s I worked as a machinist and made approximately $13 per hour. Gas was somewhere around 23 cents a gallon. A very nice home on a normal city lot was $30 to $35 thousand. There was so much work I had choices of whom I wanted to work. Small and large companies made money but the CEO’s were learning that if they outsourced the assembly work they could make a lot more money. So many companies started looking at Mexico for cheaper labor hence cheaper prices for the consumer and larger margins for the company. China was emerging as a place were they could send the products, manufacturer and ship it back cheaper than producing the products in Mexico. Wages remained stagnet in the US and prices of products and housing started to rise. Many small items produced in China were a lot cheaper but today China has full manufacturing capabilities including Engineering. Most of the Golf club manufacturers in the US have full factories in China which have their own engineering staffs and machine and casting shops to make clubs for many manufacturers.
They are not the only companies that have the same setups. Meanwhile our service economy wages try to keep up with engineering type inflation and the CEO’s clean up, profit or loss. All Nike shoes are made in China but you will still pay $100 upward for their latest shoes and Nike made 16 billion dollars last year. I really do not know how the American people can sustain the quality of life at this rate. At some point something got to give.
My 2 cents
#20 AllanHV - 01 August, 12:06 AM
I’m glad to see someone is talking about this!
We are to China what England was to the US back in the 1800’s. The English setup the manufacturing plants here, and, the next thing they knew, we were manufacturing everything here ourselves. It didn’t take long after that for the US to become the biggest consumer as well as producer, and England was left in the dust.
History repeats itself, but now we’re on the wrong end of the stick. England survived, and so will we. But there is an important difference. China is not our friend. Communist countries can change course much more quickly than we can, and we may not like the next direction they take. How quickly we forget that China shot down one of our spy planes just before 9/11 while we were trying to watch them receive a new nuclear sub from Russia, and that they have a terrible record of killing their own people. They don’t even allow their people uncensored access to the internet, or any other news.
We’re not just killing our own economy, we’re creating a monster in the process.
Allan Vaitses
AHV Systems Inc.
High quality embedded systems development in the USA !
#21 CAD/CAM operator - 04 August, 2:32 AM
Quote “#6 CAD guy - 30 July, 9:55 AM
If you dont like President Bush, why don’t you just come out and say so.
P.S. I can hire Indian CAD operators for $20/hour, here it costs me $42.21/hour. Why do you think companies off-shore?”
In response to CAD guy, I am making $11.50/hour as a CAD/CAM operator and only dream of making $20/hour, Some ostrich needs to pull their head out of the ground and Start believing in Our Great Country again we should have a USA DISTINCTION GRADE so people can pick superior quality products again. This will save our landfills from filling up so fast from “cheap” or “disposable” products, (The kind of products that used to last for years and aren’t full of lead.) Please vote and let your voice be heard. Thank You for your time
P.S. Maybe we should look at tariffs and equal trade again.
#22 designworld reader - 07 October, 9:28 AM
John,
In an effort to improve your publication, here is some honest feedback.
Your article is really out of line in taking on politics. I really would like to hear some insights about design rather than a political commentary. I reserve those topics for when I’m on my personal time, not at work. Also, the objective of your article is not very clear, one never knows what to find. Further, the tone of your articles are regularily quite negative. I believe you’d be more effective if you could offer some insights we could get excited about. For example, give us an optimistic view about why manufacturing in the US is good, and site some specific examples that are having success. Paint a vision of how things could be. You might have more influence that way rather than regularily tearing down. For me personally, I find the material to be de-energizing and I’m less likely to read it next time.
Take it for what it’s worth. As we always say at my company, feedback is a gift. I have never given feedback to an editorial editor before, so this one is a rare gift. I hope you find this useful.
A regular subscriber.
#23 designworld reader - 07 October, 9:29 AM
John, I agree with everything you write. The problem is the media has mesmerized the public into believing alternative people like Ron Paul are crazy or unelectable. The problem with Ron Paul is he wants to do what is best for this country, via the Constitution. This concept of following the Constitution simply does not work well with the media, the special interests and all the other traitors who basically are running this country into the grave. Jefferson, Franklin, Washington et all really DID have some foresight when they started this country. The founders warned against central banking, foreign wars, taxation, and a host of other actions which have proven to be detrimental. Hopefully increasing numbers of people will turn off their tv, miss a golf game or two, and actually study the Constitution and Bill of Rights. These documents are not just ‘pieces of paper’ (as GW Bush has stated). The evil which dominates Washington DC, Wall Street/banking and the complicit media depend upon a lazy, dumb, Godless populace.
I pray this country wakes up in a hurry!
Leo Bauby
#24 designworld reader - 07 October, 9:29 AM
HI JOHN,
I READ INSIGHTS EVERY ISSUE AND I BELIEVE THAT YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. IN MY DAILY PAPER I SEE HUNDREDS OF HOME BEING FORECLOSED ON AND THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE FILING BANKBRUPT. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO STILL AGREES WITH BUSH. IS THERE SOMETHING I’M MISSING? MAYBE WHEN WE GO INTO A FULL DEPRESSION, SOME OF THEM WILL WAKE UP.
WILLIE
#25 designworld reader - 07 October, 9:30 AM
I read your insight article and I unfortunately have to agree. I would like to add that the costly wasting that America endures is a direct effect of our capitalistic nature. These are growing pains “if you will” that our government should become mature enough correct.
The free trade in a way works like that of giving a dog table scraps. In the beginning the dog will not expect the extra treat and you might get a lick for it; yet after a bit of routine, the dog will bark at you for holding back or even try to get at your plate while you are eating. This is the kind of thing America has not addressed. We must put bills in place that begin to look out for the interests of the world. As entrepreneurs, new business opportunities will come from subsidies that could be in place to properly motivate free trade in the correct direction. Greed is only as good as the guidelines that government provides it.
Josh Kaplan
#26 designworld reader - 07 October, 9:31 AM
Mr. Gyorki,
Your point is well taken but it is old business. It may provoke a discussion among the readers but the true is that American manufacturing is already global and changing the situation would take many years and the unlikely political will of the ones who benefit the most with the current situation. We have even lost the capability of producing economically in USA most of the goods we buy offshore, and whether we want to admit it or not, we are more dependent from them that they are from us.
What am I going to do about it? Keep trying to adapt to the reality.
What is going to happen? Who knows, I have been wrong most of the times when trying to predict the future.
Where have you been for the last thirty years? ………
Regards
A.B.
Northridge, CA
#27 designworld reader - 07 October, 9:31 AM
Hi John,
I felt compelled to respond to your insights column this month with a different viewpoint. Lots of interesting discussion points that would support hours of chat over an adult beverage, I’ll hit a couple highlights.
Globalization and automation should be used to our (and the worlds) advantage. Thanks to automation and technology, we exited the agricultural age a couple hundred years ago (I don’t want to be a farmer). Hundreds of thousands lost their livelihoods and moved into higher value work in the industrial age of the 19th century. Thanks (primarily) to automation and secondarily to low living standards in other countries, hundreds of thousands of factory jobs were lost or offshored in the 20th century (I don’t want to be a factory worker). Then the US economy shifted to “knowledge workers” (ala Drucker). So we became engineers, Dr.’s, accountants, or even lawyers. Today we’re experiencing the next shift where knowledge workers are no longer the ones that will drive our economic engine. A Dr. in India interprets my MRI, skilled coders in India are eager to work for $12k.
That’s ok too. It doesn’t mean we have to become a service economy. We simply have to do what others can’t do cheaper, or automate. Creativity, system architecture, synthesizing the big picture to architect a system, design (engineering is down, but graphic design student populations are through the roof!) – those are the roles that will drive our economy and growth. And I’m sure that some of that will change yet again in the next 50-100 years - but being the innovative, entrepreneurial Americans that we are, we will continue to evolve and thrive.
Yet another view that I wrestle with is the balance between patriotism and humanitarianism. I’m personally “guilty” of exporting six figure sums for engineering services to India and Eastern Europe. Ironically, the primary motivator isn’t the economics, it’s that I can’t recruit engineers in our “micropolitan” location (3-4 month recruiting cycle per engineer). But I don’t feel guilty at all that Nimish, one of the engineers in India who grew up with literally nothing, and today has 3 young children of his own, is improving the standard of living for his family with my help. The humanitarian in me has a hard time wrestling with the US as a birthright that entitles those born here to a standard of living that’s orders of magnitude different than ours. That’s just something I chew on. All else being equal, the patriot in me would rather help a US family first, but it’s virtually impossible to paint a “all-things being equal” picture.
One final point to wrestle with is competition. 75% of my competitors are out of Asia. Not just their mfg, but their hq and engineering. My #1 competitor has 8x my engineering staff, likely at about 2x my cost. All have lower cost basis mfg. If we bury our head in the sand to that competition, the effect isn’t that I create X new US engineering jobs and Y new US mfg jobs, but in reality it’s that the 100+ mfg and eng jobs that we do create are lost as a competitor puts us out of business.
The solutions? Innovative, customer driven new products that bring unique value to our customers. Understanding our value proposition and being sure we spend our expensive resources on things that cannot be replicated offshore (customized low volume mfg for one), or automated.
Just a couple viewpoints you may (or may not) enjoy. One book I recommend (at least, like most books, the first half of) is “A whole new mind, why right-brainers will rule the future” by Daniel Pink. My entire product dev team just completed a book-club style review and discussion of this book, that really presents solutions to us “knowledge workers” who’s jobs have the potential to be automated or outsourced. They’re excited – they know their competition comes from offshore and every one of them feels a competitive urge to kick some butt with American ingenuity and innovation.
Best,
-Mike



#1 rsubscriber - 29 July, 10:56 AM
John,
In an effort to improve your publication, here is some honest feedback.
Your article is really out of line in taking on politics. I really would like to hear some insights about design rather than a political commentary. I reserve those topics for when I’m on my personal time, not at work. Also, the objective of your article is not very clear, one never knows what to find. Further, the tone of your articles are regularily quite negative. I believe you’d be more effective if you could offer some insights we could get excited about. For example, give us an optimistic view about why manufacturing in the US is good, and site some specific examples that are having success. Paint a vision of how things could be. You might have more influence that way rather than regularily tearing down. For me personally, I find the material to be de-energizing and I’m less likely to read it next time.
Take it for what it’s worth. As we always say at my company, feedback is a gift. I have never given feedback to an editorial editor before, so this one is a rare gift. I hope you find this useful.
A regular subscriber.